2015 Florida Derby Picks and Analysis - Taking a shot against Upstart

Apr 30, 2015 Kentucky Derby 2015 picks: Carpe Diem a popular pick among experts American Pharoah is favored, but many experts are looking to the 9-1 choice for a Derby alternative. By James Pennington Apr 30. Ocho Ocho Ocho won his three 2-year-old outings, then started 2015 by finishing eighth, 15.5 lengths behind winner and Derby contender Dortmund in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 7. 2015 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis Kentucky Derby-G1 Race 11, Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 2, 2015 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/4-miles, Dirt, Purse: $2 Million Kentucky Derby Picks 1. American Pharoah Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots Danzig Moon, El Kabeir, Carpe Diem, Far Right, Frammento, Keen Ice, Itsaknockout, War Story. Apr 29, 2015 Dortmund stumbled out of the gate in the Santa Anita Derby and he won’t be able to do that in this field. I will probably place a 8-18 Boxed Exacta to be safe. Some potential sleeper picks are Firing Line, Materiality and the Irish horse Mubtaahij. Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 ths mile handily with a time of 1:58.35.

Florida Derby-G1

Derby Picks 2015 Week

Race 14, Gulfstream Park, Saturday, March 28, 2015

3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8-miles, Dirt, Purse: $1 Million

Florida Derby Picks

1. Itsaknockout

2. Materiality

3. Upstart

4. Ami’s Flatter

Florida Derby Analysis

Note: Be sure to check out Ken’s Louisiana
Derby Picks running today!

Stakes everywhere today including a packed card at Gulfstream Park highlighted
by the 68th running of the Florida Derby-G1, one of our favourite Kentucky
Derby preps.

Upstart is the logical favorite in Gulfstream Park’s signature race after
a 2 3/4-length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 21, but he
could be ripe for an upset. He was disqualified and placed second in the
Fountain of Youth for interfering with fellow Florida Derby entrant Itsaknockout,
and the latter could have more upside than the favorite.

Itsaknockout was moved up into the win spot in the Fountain of Youth, which
left him with a perfect 3-for-3 record, and this time he’s brought reinforcement
in the form of his speedy stablemate Materiality, who has already proven
himself in a minor stakes at Gulfstream going the Florida Derby distance.

Both Itsaknockout and Materiality are trained by Todd Pletcher, and while
we’ve never been big Pletcher fans when it comes to the Kentucky Derby,
his one-two punch in this year’s Florida Derby could result in an upset
if they can get perfect rides.

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The race sets up with three speed horses including Jack Tripp, Indianaughty
and My Point Exactly setting the pace, with Materiality sitting right behind
that trio waiting to pounce. If jockey J R Velazquez avoids a duel he has
a chance to get the jump on both Upstart and Itsaknockout into the stretch
at decent morning line odds of 7/2. The question is whether he can handle
the class raise when the big guns come running.

While Upstart deserves to be favored off physical wins in the Holy Bull-G2
and the Fountain of Youth under J L Ortiz, his effort in the latter race
was simply not that impressive. He drifted out and bothered Itsaknockout
as that one was trying to go by him in deep stretch before finally drawing
out late. We were expecting better of Upstart that day and we’re not sure
whether he bounced in his second start off the layoff or whether some cracks
are starting to show.

Derby Picks 2020

Itsaknockout is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and he does have the
angle of a horse making its second start up in class after a good effort
on the class raise. He’s worth a play on that angle alone, and if we can
get him home first or second with stablemate Materiality the exacta price
will be excellent.

We’ll take Itsaknockout on top in the Florida Derby exacta with Materiality
and Upstart underneath and reverse the exacta for half the amount. We’ll
take a similar stance in the trifecta and superfectas but will use all on
the bottom in the fourth position in the superfecta. And we’ll take a small
extra exacta box on the two Pletcher horses.

We’ll let odds determine which Pletcher horse we’re betting to win. If
Itsaknockout is below 2-1 and Materiality is 4-1 or better, we’ll likely
take a shot on Materiality to get a perfect trip and sneak away in early
stretch, saving just enough to hold on late. He did post a triple digit
Beyer Speed Figure in his last race, so he does have enough talent. We’ll
just have to hope his jockey doesn’t go dumb-dumb on us and get into a duel
early in the race. Of course, that’s never happened before.

NOT!

Derby Picks Experts

With the $5 Million Dollar Breeders’ Cup Classic four months away, it is time to start looking ahead at the potential contenders for the Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing. No surprise, with Shared Belief being injured and out for the rest of the year, that the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah tops the list. But a lot can happen in five months so keep an eye on the winners of the “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races. Particularly, the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park August 2nd, the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga August 8th, the prestigious Travers Stakes at Saratoga August 29th and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park October 3rd.

And now for my top 7 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender list:

1) American Pharoah – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing appears to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. Followed by the Travers Stakes August 29th

2)California Chrome – The 2014 Horse of the Year, he has had a decent 2015 with two 2nd places in two starts–the San Antonio Handicap (behind Shared Belief) and Dubai World Cup. I really liked his performance in the Dubai World Cup even though he finished 2nd. His next start could be the Arlington Million on August 15th. But note that if he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will have a different jockey as Victor Espinosz will ride American Pharoah.

3) Firing LIne – Although he bombed in the muddy Preakness Stakes, he never finished worst than 2nd before this race. And remember that he finished a length behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby– the same 1 & 1/4 mile distance as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be. Some horses don’t race well in the slop, so I think he deserves a Mulligan for his Preakness performance.

4) Bayern– Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had less than stellar performances (6th, 10th) in two races this year. But both were a mile or under. However, this was thought to be his strength last year and many questioned how he would fare in two-turn races. I expect this Bob Baffert-trained horse to bounce back. His next start appears to be the San Diego Handicap on July 25th.

5) Tonalist – This year, he won the Westchester Stakes and finished 2nd in the Met Mile. But with his pedigree (Sire Tapit). he is better suited for races longer than 1 mile. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Belmont Stakes last year and finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start will be the Suburban Handicap on July 4th.

Derby Picks 2015 Week

6) Dortmund– He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve. He will be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th.

7) Constitution– Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit) I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. No word on when his next start will be.

Other horses to keep an eye on: Palace Malice, Lea, Hard Aces, Moreno, Frosted, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Texas Red and Toast of New York who finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year but has yet to race this year. Texas Red, if fully recovered, was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury set-back. His closing style will be an asset in a 1 1/4 mile race.

–Michael